For this book, the editors invited and called for contributions from indispensable research areas relevant to "chance discovery," which has been defined as the discovery of events significant for making a decision, and studied since 2000. From respective research areas as artificial intelligence, mathematics, cognitive science, medical science, risk management, methodologies for design and communication, the invited and selected authors in this book present their particular approaches to chance discovery. The chapters here show contributions to identifying rare or hidden events and explaining their significance, predicting future trends, communications for scenario development in marketing and design, identification effects and side-effects of medicines, etc. The methods presented in this book are based on the interaction of human, machine, and human's living environment, rather than based purely automated predictions of the future. This is a promising direction of computer-supported decision of human in a radically changing environment.
The first and only encyclopedia to focus on the economic and financial behaviors of consumers, investors, and organizations, including an exploration of how people make good—and bad—economic decisions. • Contains an informative introductory essay that familiarizes students with the various aspects of behavioral economics • Provides a list of additional readings for those interested in learning more about the topic • Includes cross-references in each entry to help readers make connections between related topics • Defines key terms that are likely to be unfamiliar to those without advance knowledge of the subject • Helps readers identify and study particular entry categories through accompanying Topic Finders
This book presents real-world decision support systems, i.e., systems that have been running for some time and as such have been tested in real environments and complex situations; the cases are from various application domains and highlight the best practices in each stage of the system’s life cycle, from the initial requirements analysis and design phases to the final stages of the project. Each chapter provides decision-makers with recommendations and insights into lessons learned so that failures can be avoided and successes repeated. For this reason unsuccessful cases, which at some point of their life cycle were deemed as failures for one reason or another, are also included. All decision support systems are presented in a constructive, coherent and deductive manner to enhance the learning effect. It complements the many works that focus on theoretical aspects or individual module design and development by offering ‘good’ and ‘bad’ practices when developing and using decision support systems. Combining high-quality research with real-world implementations, it is of interest to researchers and professionals in industry alike.
Smart Economic Decision-Making in a Complex World is a fresh and reality-based perspective on decision-making with significant implications for analysis, self-understanding and policy. The book examines the conditions under which smart people generate outcomes that improve their place of work, their household and society. Within this work, the curious reader will find interesting open questions on many fascinating areas of current economic debate, including, the role of realistic assumptions robust model building, understanding how and when non-neoclassical behavior is best practice, why the assumption of smart decision-makers is best to understand and explain our economies and societies, and under what conditions individuals can make the best possible choices for themselves and society at large. Additional sections cover when and how efficiency is achieved, why inefficiencies can persist, when and how consumer welfare is maximized, and what benchmarks should be used to determine efficiency and rationality. Makes the case for 'smart and rational' decision-making as a context-dependent rational process that is framed by socio-cultural environment and conditioned by institutional capacities Explains how incorporation of the 'smart' decision-maker concept into economic thought improves our understanding of how, why and when people generate certain outcomes Explores how economic efficiency can be achieved, individual preferences realized, and social welfare maximized through the use of 'smart and rational' approaches
This fascinating book aims to provide a deeper understanding of the decision-making processes of entrepreneurs. This is achieved via a comparison of entrepreneurial individuals with different levels of expertise in contexts with varying degrees of potential for entrepreneurial success. This multidisciplinary study is based on entrepreneurship theory and empirical research as well as cognitive psychology. The cognitive perspective provides a link between the entrepreneur and new business creation by focusing on an individual's cognitive behaviour rather than on their personality traits. The essential issues of gathering and application of knowledge and expertise are also addressed: one of the most important implications of the study is that successful entrepreneurial decision-making behaviour can actually be taught and learned. The book concludes, however, that the provision of optimal teaching methods of this decision-making behaviour is a stiff challenge faced by entrepreneurship education. Presenting a novel combination of cognitive psychology and entrepreneurship theory with important practical implications, this book will strongly appeal to those involved in the study of entrepreneurship and cognitive psychology, and business and management. Entrepreneurs themselves will also find much to interest them in this book.
A leading authority on behavioral economics, Morris Altman and other expert contributors delve into key concepts in behavioral economics, economic psychology, behavioral finance, neuroeconomics, experimental economics, and institutional economics to help inform economic models based on reality, not theory. Through informative entries, the book explores various aspects of the subject including decision making, economic analysis, and public policy. In addition to introducing concepts to readers new to the subject, the book sheds light on more advanced financial topics in a manner that is objective, comprehensive, and accessible.
Computer simulation-based education and training is a multi-billion dollar industry. With the increased complexity of organizational decision making, projected demand for computer simulation-based decisional aids is on the rise. The objective of this book is to enhance systematically our understanding of and gain insights into the general process by which human facilitated ILEs are effectively designed and used in improving users’ decision making in dynamic tasks. This book is divided into four major parts. Part I serves as an introduction to the subject of “decision making in dynamic tasks”, its importance and its complexity. Part II provides background material, drawing upon the relevant literature, for the development of an integrated process model on the effectiveness of human facilitated ILEs in improving decision making in dynamic tasks. Part III focuses on the design, development and application of Fish Bank ILE, in laboratory experiments, to gather empirical evidence for the validity of the process model. Finally, part IV presents a comprehensive analysis of the gathered data to provide a powerful basis for understating important phenomena of training with human facilitated simulation-based learning environments, thereby, help to drive critical lessons to be learned. This book provides the reader with both a comprehensive understanding of the phenomena encountered in decision making with human facilitated ILEs and a unique way of studying the effects of these phenomena on people’s ability to make better decision in complex, dynamic tasks. This book is intended to be of use to managers and practitioners, researchers and students of dynamic decision making. The background material of Part II provides a solid base to understand and organize the existing experimental research literature and approaches.
The demand for return in investment (ROI) analyses in public health is on the rise as a ‘business case’ needs to be presented before a public health programme can be funded. This book explains the science behind ROI analyses and shows how policy makers can learn the art of understanding and using it in the context of public health. Using examples drawn from the NICE ROI Tools, business cases for various alternative policy options around smoking cessation, improving physical activity and reducing alcohol use are presented. In addition, several examples of real-world decision problems facing public health investors are discussed to address the usefulness of ROI evidence in public health policy making.
This book presents new theory and empirical studies on the roles of cognitive workload and fatigue on repeated financial decisions. The mathematical models that are developed here utilize two cusp catastrophe functions for discontinuous changes in performance and integrate objective measures of workload, subjective experiences, and individual differences among the decision makers. Additional nonlinear dynamical processes are examined with regard to persistence and antipersistence in decisions, entropy, further explanations of overall performance, and the identification of risk-optimization profiles for long sequences of decisions.
Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) has been one of the fastest growing problem areas in many disciplines. The central problem is how to evaluate a set of alternatives in terms of a number of criteria. Although this problem is very relevant in practice, there are few methods available and their quality is hard to determine. Thus, the question `Which is the best method for a given problem?' has become one of the most important and challenging ones. This is exactly what this book has as its focus and why it is important. The author extensively compares, both theoretically and empirically, real-life MCDM issues and makes the reader aware of quite a number of surprising `abnormalities' with some of these methods. What makes this book so valuable and different is that even though the analyses are rigorous, the results can be understood even by the non-specialist. Audience: Researchers, practitioners, and students; it can be used as a textbook for senior undergraduate or graduate courses in business and engineering.