In the Second Edition of Rational Choice in an Uncertain World the authors compare the basic principles of rationality with actual behaviour in making decisions. They describe theories and research findings from the field of judgment and decision making in a non-technical manner, using anecdotes as a teaching device. Intended as an introductory textbook for advanced undergraduate and graduate students, the material not only is of scholarly interest but is practical as well. The Second Edition includes: - more coverage on the role of emotions, happiness, and general well-being in decisions - a summary of the new research on the neuroscience of decision processes - more discussion of the adaptive value of (non-rational heuristics) - expansion of the graphics for decision trees, probability trees, and Venn diagrams.
This book brings together an influential sequence of papers that argue for a radical re-conceptualisation of the psychology of inference, and of cognitive science more generally. The papers demonstrate that the thesis that logic provides the basis of human inference is central to much cognitive science, although the commitment to this view is often implicit. They then note that almost all human inference is uncertain, whereas logic is the calculus of certain inference. This mismatch means that logic is not the appropriate model for human thought. Oaksford and Chater's argument draws on research in computer science, artificial intelligence and philosophy of science, in addition to experimental psychology. The authors propose that probability theory, the calculus of uncertain inference, provides a more appropriate model for human thought. They show how a probabilistic account can provide detailed explanations of experimental data on Wason's selection task, which many have viewed as providing a paradigmatic demonstration of human irrationality. Oaksford and Chater show that people's behaviour appears irrational only from a logical point of view, whereas it is entirely rational from a probabilistic perspective. The shift to a probabilistic framework for human inference has significant implications for the psychology of reasoning, cognitive science more generally, and forour picture of ourselves as rational agents.
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Whether we like it or not we all feel that the world is uncertain. From choosing a new technology to selecting a job, we rarely know in advance what outcome will result from our decisions. Unfortunately, the standard theory of choice under uncertainty developed in the early forties and fifties turns out to be too rigid to take many tricky issues of choice under uncertainty into account. The good news is that we have now moved away from the early descriptively inadequate modeling of behavior. This book brings the reader into contact with the accomplished progress in individual decision making through the most recent contributions to uncertainty modeling and behavioral decision making. It also introduces the reader into the many subtle issues to be resolved for rational choice under uncertainty.
For thirty years, the literature on decision-making and planning has been divided into two camps : work premised on rational models of choice and work designed to discredit such models. The sustained critic of fully rational decision-making theories has al ready a long history and a constant message to deliver : in practice, consequential decision-making hardly fulfills the canons of perfect rationality. There is also evidence that decision-making and planning are not unitary processes. Although the concept of "decision-making" connotes the idea of a single process, making a single choice involves a complex of processing tasks : structuring the problem, finding alternatives worth considering, deciding what information is relevant, assessing various consequences, and a variety of others. The aim of this volume is to bring together and try to inter relate some of the concepts and relevant knowledge from various disciplines concerned with one important aspect of this complex process : the management of uncertainty. It is hardly necessary to reiterate the case made by numerous authors about our changing and increasingly uncertain world. Suffice it to say here that it is uncertainty about the future, and in many cases about the past and the present also, which makes decision-making and planning so difficul t. The management of uncertainty may be defined as the way in which uncertainty is treated and processed in decision-making.
The Fast-Paced, Fun-to-Read Guide to Making Better Decisions! How much information do you really need to make a business decision? Why don't past winners keep on winning? When should you fold your hand, and when should you press on? In The Art of Decisions, Chris Blake reveals the amazing hidden realities beneath human decision making-and helps you optimize every decision you make. Blake begins by exploding the #1 myth of decision making: the idea that if you have enough knowledge, you can engineer away all risk and make a rational, objective decision that's nearly guaranteed to succeed. Next, Blake turns to the decision-making process itself, teaching better ways to make decisions in a world full of uncertainty, randomness, and tough luck. Drawing on the secrets of psychology, poker, and probability, you'll learn how to identify and overcome biases and errors that constantly creep into the decision-making process. You'll discover the power and pitfalls of intuition in familiar and unfamiliar environments and learn "rules of thumb" drawn from fields as diverse as gambling and computer programming. You're human. You'll never be perfect. But if you want to be right more often, when it matters most, this book will get you there. * Decision-making lessons from Texas Hold'em ¿¿ What to do about the risks and randomness you can't eliminate * Follow your instinct or follow the rules? ¿¿ When to use your intuition--and when to doubt it * Know when it's time to decide ¿¿ How to know when you know enough * Make better decisions in unfamiliar environments ¿¿ Hire a guide or make a map?
There are a range of views of the strategic development process within organisations. Some see the process as being purely creative, with little or no scope for analysis at any stage (hunch-and-hope). Others see it as being over-formalised, static and focusing on producing a strategic plan rather than on actions. The approach adopted in this book argues that for effective strategic decision making, creativity needs to be supported by structured methods. The strategic development process consists of a series of elements which need to be working effectively for the process to ensure the successful development of the organisation. These elements include objective setting and performance measurement, strategic initiative formulation, strategic evaluation and a process for modelling uncertain/uncontrollable factors. The book then presents a range of hard and soft methods and models capable of supporting them. These include the balanced scorecard, visioning, the TOWS matrix, cognitive mapping, scenario development, systems dynamics modelling, transformation methods such as reengineering, strategic investment appraisal and real option theory. The book should be of interest to both academics and practitioners concerned with strategic development and those teaching and researching in the fields of strategic management, management science and operational research. The book is developed from a previous text Strategic Planning: Models and Analytical Techniques, (Wiley, 1992) following a similar approach and including some of the same methods and models but incorporating an entirely new set of articles including contemporary classics by Eden, Kaplan, Keeney, Porter, Schoemaker and others.
A close-up look at the decision-making process analyzes the principles underlying the difficult choices made daily by high-profile individuals under circumstances of extreme uncertainty and enormous risk
In Decision Making and Rationality in the Modern World, Keith E. Stanovich demonstrates how work in the cognitive psychology of decision making has implications for the large and theoretically contentious debates about the nature of human rationality. Written specifically for undergraduate psychology students, the book presents a very practical approach to decision making, which is too often perceived by students as an artificial set of skills used only in academia and not in the real world. Instead, Stanovich shows how good decision-making procedures support rational behavior that enables people to act most efficiently to fulfill their goals. He explains how the concept of rationality is understood in cognitive science in terms of good decision making and judgment. Books in the Fundamentals of Cognition series serve as ideal instructional resources for advanced courses in cognitive psychology. They provide an up-to-date, well-organized survey of our current understanding of the major theories of cognitive psychology. The books are concise, which allows instructors to incorporate the latest original research and readings into their courses without overburdening their students. Focused without being too advanced--and comprehensive without being too broad--these books are the perfect resource for both students and instructors.
This text on the role of rational choice and situational choice theory in relation to crime prevention and crime policy, examines: the role of opportunity; rational choice and the legal model of the criminal; the social demand for crime prevention; and the ethics of situational crime prevention.
Healthcare organizations depend on managers to build effective peer relationships to manage complex patient needs. Today, top management is fighting the many headed monster Hydra from Greek Mythology. The organization is steeped in conflict between peers. But, as soon as one problem is resolved, two more have grown in its place. These appear to be personal conflicts, but instead follow patterns of dysfunction. This book provides the conceptual frameworks for identifying these and for developing peer to peer relationship competence in the healthcare organization.